Twitter investor sentiment and corporate earnings announcements

We examine the impact of firm-specific investor sentiment (FSIS) on stock returns for negative and positive earnings surprises. Using a measure constructed from firm-specific tweets, we find that FSIS has a greater impact on stock returns for negative relative to positive earnings surprises. We further show that the impact of FSIS is greater for firms whose valuation is uncertain and difficult to arbitrage. Moreover, we provide evidence of return reversals over post-announcement periods. Our results highlight the importance of FSIS around earnings announcements.     

The dynamics between stock returns and mutual fund flows: empirical evidence from the Greek market

This paper examines the interaction between mutual fund flows and stock returns in Greece. Specifically, we investigate the possibility of a causality mechanism through which mutual funds flows may affect stock returns and vice versa. The statistical evidence derived from the error correction model indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between mutual fund flows and stock returns. Cointegration results show that mutual funds flows cause stock returns to rise or fall. This may be explained by the fact that, in Greece, equity mutual funds are obliged by law to invest a certain percentage of their cash in stocks. Thus, inflows and outflows of cash in equity funds seem to cause higher and lower stock returns in Greek stock market.     

What Do Unions Do to Productivity? A Meta‐Analysis

The impact of unions on productivity is explored using meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis. It is shown that most of the variation in published results is due to specification differences between studies. After controlling for differences between studies, a negative association between unions and productivity is established for the United Kingdom, whereas a positive association is established for the United States in general and for U.S. manufacturing.     

A Test of the Errors–in–Expectations Explanation of the Value/Glamour Stock Returns Performance: Evidence from Analysts' Forecasts

Several empirical studies show that investment strategies that favor the purchase of stocks with low prices relative to conventional measures of value yield higher returns. Some of these studies imply that investors are too optimistic about (glamour) stocks that have had good performance in the recent past and too pessimistic about (value) stocks that have performed poorly. We examine whether investors systematically overestimate (underestimate) the future earnings performance of glamour (value) stocks over the 1976 to 1997 period. Our results fail to support the extrapolation hypothesis that posits that the superior performance of value stocks is because investors make systematic errors in predicting future growth in earnings of out–of–favor stocks.     

International stock markets interactions and conditional correlations

This paper investigates the transmission of price and volatility spillovers across the US and European stock markets in bivariate combinations. The framework used encompasses the most popular multivariate GARCH models, with News Impact Surfaces employed for interpretation. By using synchronous data the dynamic conditional correlation model (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a simple class of multivariate GARCH models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20, 339–350) is found to best capture the relationships for over half of the bivariate combinations of markets. Other findings include volatility spillovers from the US to European markets, and a reverse spillover. In addition, the magnitude of the correlation between markets is higher not only for negative shocks in both markets, but also when a combination of shocks of opposite signs occurs.     

Trends in tourism planning and development

A number of tourism planning principles is considered and reference is made to the methodology of ekistics (the study of human settlements). Patmos, a Greek island, is taken as a case study, and the results of this tourism project are assessed in relation to the planning principles and methodology outlined.     

Arbeitslosengeld II: Arbeitsanreize und Verteilungsgerechtigkeit

Die Zusammenlegung von Arbeitslosen- und Sozialhilfe hatte unter anderem das Ziel, die Arbeitsanreize für arbeitsf?hige Leistungsempf?nger zu st?rken. Wie sind die Anreizwirkungen zu bewerten? Wirkt der durch Arbeitslosengeld II erreichbare Lebensstandard negativ bei der Entscheidung für eine Arbeitsaufnahme? Werden kinderreiche Familien bei den ALG-II-Leistungen benachteiligt? Dr. Christos Koulovatianos, 35, ist derzeit Visiting-Professor am Lehrstuhl für Geld und Makro?konomie der Goethe Universit?t Frankfurt/Main; Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schmidt, 40, ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Finanzwissenschaft, Sozialpolitik und Gesundheits?konomik an der Christian-Albrechts-Universit?t zu Kiel und t?tig am Institut für Weltwirtschaft; Dr. Carsten Schr?der, 35, ist dort Juniorprofessor. Wir danken Alfred Boss, Stefan Homburg, Harmen Lehment, Tim Lohse, Klaus Schrader, Dennis J. Snower, Jürgen Stehn und Michael Stremlau für hilfreiche Kommentare.     

A life history approach to perceptions of global climate change risk: young adults’ experiences about impacts,causes, and solutions

Although the general acceptance of human-influenced global climate change within the technical sphere of science is important to consider, public perceptions of global climate change risks, impacts, causes, and solutions are as important to policy actions as scientific findings. Yet, studies analyzing climate change risk perceptions suffer from a number of limitations or use only a handful of approaches. Using a limited life history approach, this article answers calls for additional qualitative approaches in risk perception research. This article (1) introduces risk perception researchers to the limited life history method; (2) discovers that young adults articulate climate change solutions at the individual level, often as consumers, and blend their responses to climate change risks and advocacy for solutions with a general, environmentally friendly orientation, a ‘green posture;’ and (3) contends the key sources informing young adults’ perceptions about climate change risk have changed significantly from previous studies.     

Coevolution of finite automata with errors

We use a genetic algorithm to simulate the evolution of error-prone finite automata in the repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma game. In particular, the automata are subjected to implementation and perception errors. The computational experiments examine whether and how the distribution of outcomes and genotypes of the coevolved automata change with different levels of errors. We find that the complexity of the automata is decreasing in the probability of errors. Furthermore, the prevailing structures tend to exhibit low reciprocal cooperation and low tolerance to defections as the probability of errors increases. In addition, by varying the error level, the study identifies a threshold. Below the threshold, the prevailing structures are closed-loop (history-dependent) and diverse, which impedes any inferential projections on the superiority of a particular automaton. However, at and above the threshold, the prevailing structures converge to the open-loop (history-independent) automaton Always-Defect (ALLD). Finally, we find that perception errors are more detrimental than implementation errors to the fitness of the automata. These resultsshow that the evolution of cooperative automata is considerably weaker than expected.     

Indirect tax harmonization and global public goods

This paper identifies conditions under which, starting from any tax-distorting equilibrium, destination- and origin-based indirect tax-harmonizing reforms are potentially Pareto improving in the presence of global public goods. The first condition (unrequited transfers between governments) requires that transfers are designed in such a way that the marginal valuations of the global public goods are equalized, whereas the second (conditional revenue changes) requires that the change in global tax revenues, as a consequence of tax harmonization, is consistent with the under/over-provision of global public goods relative to the (modified) Samuelson rule. Under these conditions, tax harmonization results in redistributing the gains from a reduction in global deadweight loss and any changes in global tax revenues according to the Pareto principle. And this is the case independently of the tax principle in place (destination or origin).